How will the war in Ukraine end?

The hasty withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine is by no means signaling the last stretch of the war, says Hein Goemans.

Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, is an expert on international conflicts—on how they begin and how they may end.

“Most people believe that if one side wins a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely,” says Goemans, author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of Leaders and International Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2011).

But that’s not true. “If I fight a war with you and do poorly—but expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for me—then I’m not going to change my war aims. Only if something unexpected happens, would I change my expectations and my strategy.”

Likewise, Putin’s sham referenda in occupied territories and his calls for a cease-fire do not make peace now any more likely, Goemans says. “He’ll propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. That’s for domestic consumption in Russia; he’s just posturing.”

Here, Goemans discusses “massive consequences” for Europe, worst-case scenarios, the outlook for peace, and what makes Putin so dangerous:

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