Is March Madness bracket success all luck?

Is picking a good March Madness bracket skill or luck?

In psychology, the concept of the illusion of control refers to the phenomenon where people believe their choices strongly affect an outcome, even though chance is doing most of the work.

The illusion of control is on full display during March Madness, where millions of people pick favorites and upsets as they fill out their bracket. So-called experts will offer their picks, and their choices feel smart but, in the end, luck still decides most of what happens. One bad game, one lucky shot, one untimely injury can bust a bracket.

Are people who accurately predict game outcomes good at what they do? Albert Cohen, director of Michigan State University’s graduate certificate in sports analytics, says that may be the case, but luck always factors into success in picking a bracket.

Cohen is director of the Actuarial Science Program, as well as a senior academic specialist in the College of Natural Science’s math department and the statistics and probability department. And while it may seem counterintuitive, statistics and actuarial science are more closely related to sports than you might think.

Here, Cohen digs into the illusion of control and how it applies to March Madness:

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